19. Successful implementation of this approach by the Government of Israel would require four key ingredients: 1) identifying potential developments and trends, 2) assessing their relevance to Israeli national interests, 3) determining the potential array of required responses, 4) and implementing recommendations that leave Israel better prepared for Israel strikes thousands of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, but suffers significant damage to its own infrastructure from precision missile strikes. In return, Damascus receives recognition of its control over Syrian Kurdish territories (albeit granting local bodies some autonomy), an invitation to return to the Arab League, and some Gulf funding for Syrian reconstruction efforts. Gen. Then, on the basis of the first two sections, four scenarios elaborate some distinctly different pathways that the Middle East might take to 2030. The goal of this policy paper is to propose a comprehensive economic strategy for the Israeli economy, backed up by a methodological framework based on the economys strengths and weakness, including a description of the areas that are in need of specific and implementable programs and continuous measurement of progress. Israel and Hamas are engaged in frequent violent and intensive clashes that fail to result in any sort of strategic change that would prevent the next round of fighting. Connor Dilleen. 37. In 2028, the reformists lose the elections in Iran as their diplomatic endeavors failed to significantly improve the countrys economic situation. The vision is to bring the levels of the factors of production up to those in the benchmark economies, including investment in public infrastructure, and in particular transportation infrastructure and ICT infrastructure; improvement in human capital by establishing a post-secondary vocational education and training (VET) system, in parallel to the academic system; and the stimulation of the business sector through the reduction in the bureaucratic and wasteful regulatory burden. Jonas Svava Iversen. Tehran responds with a symbolic missile attack on Israeli soil, and a Three-Day War between Israel and Hezbollah ensues. OECD. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Merriam-Webster. It just doesn't work. The economy is among the fastest-growing in the industrialized world. For example, the NICs 2004 report notes that one uncertainty for the future is the Extent to which [Internet] connectivity challenges governments. It is now clear that despite the short period in which social media exclusively enabled the public to organize against regimes, the connectedness and smartness of daily life from iPhones to cashless payment to apps has since evolved into a force multiplier that on balance favors totalitarian governments. In spite of worrying news, the Professor of Shoresh Institution for Socioeconomic Research, Ben-David, warns that recent headlines regarding Israels economy are sensationalized, saying that 2022 should not be compared to recent years due to the effects of the pandemic. Report: Bank officials believe $4 billion moved out of Israel in recent weeks. With that in mind, the authors sought to develop four scenarios of possible futures of the Middle East in 2030 from the Israeli point of view and based on the 2x2 matrix methodology. The first priority on the Israeli national security agenda is to prevent nuclearization by any Middle Eastern country. Brun Itai, Intelligence Analysis: Understanding Reality in an Era of Dramatic Changes.. "Israel's Public Debate over Natural Gas: Future Confrontations," Institute for National Security Studies, INSS Insight 438, June 26, 2013. The U.S. government continues to speak publicly about the ideals of human rights and democracy, including in ways that pertain to the Middle East, but in practice applies minimal pressure on Arab rulers to adopt those principles. Radical Islamic groups are viewed by growing numbers of the general public as attractive anti-regime alternatives. As much as it is an opportunity for both sides, the latent divergences between Israel and the Arab states demand that diplomatic relations should be never taken for granted. Russia works together with Saudi Arabia to expand and strengthen OPEC+ in order to maintain high energy prices. As a result, several of President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisis megaprojects are cancelled and Egypts connection to the other members of the Arab Quartet (Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain) erodes. The intersection between the two variables produces the following four scenarios: After determining the four scenarios, we have added some meat to the skeletal scenarios through backcasting. Examples of trends present today that have not changed much since the NIC report was published more than 15 years ago include the power of the U.S. dollar in the global financial system and the strong global commitment to prevent countries in the Middle East from acquiring nuclear weapons (and none have nuclearized since the publication of the report). Since the start of the crisis in early 2020, economic institutions have frequently updated their forecasts based on projected energy use and the global economic recovery.19 Political, military, and social aspects of regional dynamics in the Middle East remain volatile. The Iranian-Arab faultline in the region revives Arab nationalism and efforts to increase economic, political, and military cooperation between Arab states. The Abraham Accords do not constitute an irreversible change in the dynamics between Israel and Arab countries or entirely disconnect these relations from the Palestinian issue. The Global Risks Report 2020. January 15, 2020. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020. Irans reformists then win a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections of 2024, which facilitates the signing of a new and more comprehensive nuclear agreement the following year. Any errors in this work are the authors alone. Continued low energy prices have made the project of shipping gas from Israel to Europe no longer economically viable, and the Israeli government decides to use the gas for internal consumption and to sell it to Gaza. 16. By 2025, Dahlan brings U.S. and Emirati pressure to bear on Israel to promote a peace agreement. Michael Singh. Strengthening Environmental Foresight: Potential Contributions of Futures Research.Ecology and Society. At the same time, the next country in the Middle East to acquire nuclear weapons is not necessarily Iran, and several nuclear powers might appear in parallel/cascade over a short period of time. These concessions are granted in exchange for broadening Irans civilian nuclear program (construction of five reactors paid for by an international consortium) and the lifting of all sanctions. 8. The thought experiment that is the basis for this article highlights the significant possibility that Israels strategic environment will change in dynamic ways: Following this exercise, the next stage in researching the future of Israels strategic balance could include examining how Israels possible domestic trajectories could impact its view of these scenarios as well as its ability to advance its interests in light of them. Middle East Economies: Dim Light at the End of the Tunnel. Institute for National Security Studies. Water Scarcity Clock. 17. In other news, the dollar is regaining confidence while oil dips and more rate hikes loom ahead, such as Fed flags. Incorrect password. Middle East And North Africa Human Capital Plan. Human Capital Project. Authors' note: We would like to thank Mr. David Shedd, former acting director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, Mr. Elisha Stoin of Israels Ministry of Intelligence, and Mr. Steven Kenney of the Middle East Institute for their important advice and thoughtful input on the monumental task of thinking about the future. Peter Bishop, Andy Hines, and Terry Collins. For Israel, the deal is important. Plessner, Yakir. In this scenario, reduced U.S. pressure on Iran does not eliminate the possibility of regime change, but the new regime may not enter the Western orbit or forfeit hegemonic and nuclear ambitions if doing so has not or cannot deliver considerable improvements in Iranians living conditions. 2018 Middle East Institute All Rights Reserved | Accessibility Policy |Built by Social Driver. Prime Minister Modi's "Reform, Perform and Transform" agenda is yielding remarkable results. It also shows how the erosion of the U.S.-Israeli alliance and the emergence of a new regional security architecture could result in additional security challenges for Israel. Any benefits yielded from the fall of the regime could prove to be ephemeral without considerable engagement by the West. Dr. Yoel Guzansky is a Senior Research Fellow at the INSS, specializing in Gulf politics and security. Friday, March 27, 2020 Ari Heistein, Futures Thinking Methodologies Options Relevant For Schooling For Tomorrow. OECD. Successful implementation of this approach by the Government of Israel would require four key ingredients: 1) identifying potential developments and trends, 2) assessing their relevance to Israeli national interests, 3) determining the potential array of required responses, 4) and implementing recommendations that leave Israel better prepared for the range of possible futures. December 2004. https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_Mapping%20the%20Glo. The further one seeks to gaze into the future, the less useful forecast techniques become. In the second half of the decade, Israel capitalizes on the relative weakness of Egypt and the Gulf states in order to expand cooperation with them. "Democracy is the fuel for the economy's locomotive." That was written on a banner at today's protest against proposed judicial reform in Israel. Of the total exports, exports to Egypt grew by 96%, and exports to/via Jordan grew by 46%. July 1994. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1994-07-01/peering-future. Just two years after the signing of the Abraham Accords, memorandums of understanding are turning into business deals, and trade between. In the words of former NIC Chairman Joseph Nye Jr., The job, after all, is not so much to predict the future as to help policymakers think about the future. This scenario shows that strong American involvement in the region alone might not guarantee that Israels security interests are protected. The Rules-Based Multilateral Order: A Rethink Is Needed. The Institute of International and European Affairs. No one can know the future, and it is misleading to pretend to.34 Or as the late political scientist Herman Kahn of the RAND Corporation put it succinctly, The most likely future isnt.35, Climate change will likely intensify water scarcity in an already water-poor region, bring food shortages, spur refugee crises, and possibly make some areas in the Arab Gulf uninhabitable by 2050.. Scenarios as a scholarly methodology to produce interesting research. Science Direct. One of the most serious challenges Israel has faced over its . This information should put traders at ease, but when purchasing stocks, it is important not just to focus on what stocks should be purchased, but how to choose a good broker. Even the achievement of optimistic employment goals among sectors with currently low participation rates will not prevent a drop in GDP growth to a historically low level of only 2.3% per year. Consumer spending has come to a crawl and predictions show that the Israeli economy will not hit the 3% growth that was. Also found in similar projects such as: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/ME2020.pdf. Traders Union has released a list of reputable online stock brokers to go with in 2022, but there are also other options that can be utilized as long as investors do their due diligence. The aim of examining futures of the past is certainly not to point out what some might view as errors. First, what quickly becomes apparent in assessments of the future is the tendency of authors, regardless of when they are writing,13 to include assumptions that their subject is in a unique state of flux. October 2019. http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/907071571420642349/HCP-MiddleEast-Plan-. 13. 23. At Irans urging, Hezbollah agrees to Lebanons settling of the maritime boundary dispute with Israel in order to develop the Lebanese gas fields though the group maintains its hold on political power and arms. Israel's economy grew at a 6.5% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, as investment in fixed assets and private consumption expanded, the Central Bureau of Statistics said, raising its. Therefore, this article refrains from attempts at prophecy but deals instead with thinking about the future. It opens with an analytical framework for scenario development, supplemented by trends impact and horizon scanning. The second section studies the futures of the past, in terms of what we might learn about the pitfalls of future projection and scenario-building from those outlining possible futures for 2020 from years past. It grew faster than the Eurozone average, as well as the US, Canada, and Australia. It does not engage in advocacy and its scholars opinions are their own. For a listing of MEI donors, please clickhere. Lastly, the latest statement shows that the Oman central bank is set to raise the repo rate by 50 bps. Oded Eran. 2) Socio-economic stability in MENA countries is strongly correlated with (e) demographic pressures, societal and (f) economic prospects, (g) environmental problems, and (h) technological change. Meanwhile, Jonathan Katz, the chief economist at Leader Capital Markets, announced that there, Latest updates put the annual inflation to be. May 14, 2019. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/how-climate-change-cou. Through the reduction of security cooperation and freezing of military aid, Washington (unsuccessfully) seeks to pressure Cairo to roll back relations with its great power rivals. Social Capital in the Middle East and North Africa. Arab Barometer. The opinions, facts and any media content in them are presented solely by the authors, and neither The Times of Israel nor its partners assume any responsibility for them. China signs an agreement with Field Marshall Khalifa Hifter to operate the Benghazi port. According to Reuters, the Saudi inflation rate has eased since November and is currently at 2.9%. GDP (PPP): $428.5 billion 3.6% 5-year compound annual growth $45,750 per capita Unemployment: 4.3% Inflation (CPI): 1.5% Public Debt: 68.0% Israel's economic freedom score is 68.9, making its. Israels GDP per capita is not catching up to that of comparable OECD countries and the gap has remained unchanged for more than 40 years. Dr. Guzansky is also a Non-Resident Scholar at the Middle East Institute and was previously a Visiting Fellow at Stanford Universitys Hoover Institution, an Israel Institute Postdoctoral Fellow, and a Fulbright Scholar. Deterioration of the regional economy/order might bring opportunities to diminish major military threats to Israel at reduced costs or increase its regional footprint through deeper intra-regional cooperation. The poverty rate is projected to decline to 26.7% in 2022, and then to further gradually decrease to 26.1% by 2024. November 1, 2009. https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-fina. The U.S. and the EU are not involved in the process. Oil from the UAE (the national oil company there is named Adnoc) would be a great economic and strategic opportunity for Israel. MIT Sloan Management Review defines a weak signal as follows: A seemingly random or disconnected piece of information that at first appears to be background noise but can be recognized as part of a significant pattern by viewing it through a different frame or connecting it with other pieces of information. From Paul J.H. Cairo is also facing intensifying water scarcity, and then, as a result, a food shortage ensues in Egypt and causes the price of basic foodstuffs to rise in nearby countries. Economic distress in Jordan results in the overthrow of the Hashemite ruler by Islamist forces, which then leads to increased tensions with Israel and ultimately the abolition of the 1994 peace agreement. Elevated inflation will slow disposable income and private consumption. Tuesday, March 3, 2020 In Israel, Benny Gantz decides to join with rival Netanyahu #israel #economyofisrael #geopolitics What is the economic future of Israel? The global slowdown is set to weaken demand from Israels trading partners. The relative prosperity in the region due to continued high oil prices and remittances from the Gulf leads Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to invest in more advanced and intrusive surveillance technology. This information should put traders at ease, but when purchasing stocks, it is important not just to focus on what stocks should be purchased, but how to choose a good broker. 33. This process included conducting a structured analysis of persistent trends and possible game-changers, prioritizing them, and agreeing on the two variables from which the two axes of the scenario generating matrix were derived. The Middle East Institute (MEI) is an independent, non-partisan, non-for-profit, educational organization. March 7, 2023 29:06 Ron. For those who might contend that some aspects of the futures sketched out seem unlikely or unrealistic, we acknowledge that they may not appear probable, but given the developments of 2020 we felt entitled if not obligated to abide by Herman Kahns advice to think the unthinkable.. Middle East Demographics of 2030. The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. 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