Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory. Just how and when (and if) that happens is uncertain but Eurasia Group's base-case scenario for the next three months is for Russia to gain "patchy control of eastern Ukraine, up to the Dnipro River" and to capture the capital Kyiv after a protracted siege, and for "a Russian-backed puppet government" to be established. "I think if Putin is allowed to do this, he can say that he won, and he will try to sell it to his audience as a victory. Michal Baranowski, director of the German Marshall Fund's Warsaw office, told CNBC just hours into Russia's invasion that Putin "told us what he wants to do, he wants to change the government in Kyiv and when he was laying out his demands he was talking about the eastern flank of NATO and the rest of Europe as well. Putins agenda, to wipe out Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a people, is longstanding and deeply held in Russian society and by the nations power brokers. The war will leave Russia diminished in military, economic, and geopolitical terms. Russia has lambasted the U.S. for allegedly blackmailing 'neutral' Switzerland. As Russia increases its military presence along the Ukrainian border, Stanford scholar Steven Pifer discusses what Russia hopes to achieve and why its policies toward Ukraine are backfiring. Russia-Ukraine war: Putins travel options extremely limited after international criminal court warrant as it happened, ICCjudges issue arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes. Russia attacked Ukraine when its pro-Russian president was deposed in early 2014. Ukraine says it will only consider peace settlements after Russian. But Ukraine's air defenses were surprisingly effective, shooting down many Russian fighter jets and helicopters in the first couple months of the war. If the Russian military continues to falter, it would create incentives for Russia to negotiate some kind of peace agreement or cease-fire. Concerned about the high probability of Russia's outright invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence has warned European allies that there is but a narrow window of opportunity to deter Putin . Russia-Ukraine War: Insights and Analysis Lessons from a year of war in Ukraine One year on from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Harvard Kennedy School faculty members reflect on how the conflict has changed the way we think about vital global issues and what lessons it has taught us. The Russian leadership has escalated its demands of Kyiv while its army was losing ground on the battlefield. But Bremmer believes that Putin still perceives this kind of help "as acts of war taken by the United States and NATO allies against Russia, meriting retaliation.". However, he did not say that Ukraine would be directly behind any such attacks. A Ukrainian military official hinted in a recent interview of when Ukraine expects the war with Russia might end. Very often, the situation is very far from the reality," he said. A new look at immigrants outsize contribution to innovation in the U.S. Do you have a question about the Russia-Ukraine war? In February 2023, a senior Ukrainian official said that peace talks are " out of the question " - without. That said, war is, by its nature, unpredictable. Whether the country leans toward greater authoritarianism under Putin, or away from him altogether, will largely determine how Russia behaves with the rest of the world," they added. Ukrainian replacement troops go through combat training on Feb. 24 in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. A new study finds foreign-born inventors generate a disproportionate share of patents and make their U.S.-born collaborators more productive. A long war holds no advantages for Ukraine, and sustaining public support for the assistance that Ukraine needs over the long term may prove a challenge for the West. Yuri Kadobnov/AFP via Getty Images Copyright 20102023, The Conversation Media Group Ltd. Ukrainian National Guard soldiers undergo combat training outside of Kyiv in February 2023. The Pentagon's $842 billion 2024 budget request does not include additional funding for Ukraine in its war against Russia due to the unpredictability of the conflict's longevity, officials . Political analysts have been predicting that Russia could invade Ukraine for. hide caption. Conversely, Russia successfully halted a wider collapse of its forces and appears to be in a stronger position militarily heading into the spring than it was in the fall of 2022. Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, and the invasion is now in its third week. They are delayed on-ramps to pursue the same objectives, just under better circumstances, she said. 12, a Ukrainian national security analyst. A man who will be remembered forever. In a recent interview, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence hinted at a possible end date for his country's war with Russia. Vlad Mykhnenko, an expert in the post-communist transformation of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at the University of Oxford laid out three potential scenarios for a Russian defeat. The invasion has been a disaster for President Vladimir Putin and in order to justify it at home he at least has to take control of Ukraine's Donbas region, after which he can falsely claim that the army saved Russian citizens persecuted by Ukraine. Both countries have suffered major economic declines since the war. Bremmer said Russia may therefore resort to more indirect attacks including cyberattacks against critical infrastructure, disinformation campaigns, and even the possible sanctioning of terrorism in and against NATO countries. Russia negotiated a cease-fire in 1994, which ended the first war, but then restarted another war three years later and ramped up its onslaught. He should be humiliated.". Dmitry Astakhov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images These losses should help create incentives for Ukraine to go along with some kind of agreement to stop the fighting. Neither the U.N. nor any other group or country is powerful enough to force Russia to fulfill commitments it might make as part of a peace agreement. While not as devastating as predicted, Western sanctions have nevertheless taken a toll on Russias economy. But they added that this could lead to the risk of airborne clashes between Russian and NATO aircraft. The others end in victory for one side or when, for a variety of reasons, the fighting simply peters out. "Putin will find it quite difficult to convince his own elite that this victory was worth all the losses, and everything that they have lostI don't feel that they would be very much happy about this, that okay, we can get a few Ukrainian villages, and that should compensate for all the losses," he said. During President Putin's marathon state address on Feb. 21, he accused Western countries of attempting "to deprive Russia of these historical territories that are now called Ukraine," making war the only way to "protect the people in our historical lands.". Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Europe has united in support of Ukraine, with Finland and Sweden abandoning decades of neutrality to seek to join NATO, and Berlin junking five decades of German policy toward the Soviet Union and Russia. It will most certainly outlast the Putin regime and wont be curtailed by current battlefield setbacks, said Nataliya Bugayova M.P.P. Pifers research focuses on nuclear arms control, Ukraine, Russia, and European security. Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, said on Monday that relations between Russia and China were a major factor supporting global stability in the world today, Reuters reports, citing Russian state-owned news agency Tass. People often accuse Putin of wanting to resurrect the Soviet Union. "Crimea is Ukrainian territory, we can use any weapon on our territory," he answered. The Western military alliance NATO has repeatedly refused to directly intervene in the Russia-Ukraine war as doing so would likely bring it into direct conflict with Moscow which, for its part, has warned that any country that "interferes" in what it calls its "special military operation" in Ukraine will face untold consequences. A year later, the war shows no concrete signs of ending. Meanwhile, Russia reportedly spends only $44 per barrel on production, meaning there's still plenty of profit flowing into the country, even with the price cap and market rate where it is now. Most think at least another year. "I promise it will not take too long now, and every taxpayer in the U.S. will be able to see where every cent went," he said. As China's president heads to Russia, the Biden administration warned against a one-sided peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. What does the ICC arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin mean in reality? Given that Russia has nuclear weapons and considerable political power as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, these options are not feasible in the case of Ukraine. However, the questions of if and when to engage should rest with the Ukrainian government. NATO allies don't agree, Berlin does not want to give Putin any pretext for escalation, whose improbable assassination in Sarajevo sparked World War I. He doesn't have any superpowers. What might people misunderstand or underestimate about the conflict? The war between Russia and Ukraine is still ongoing and it's unclear when it will end.. What's happening: Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February, with Russian President Vladimir Putin suggesting the move was a military operation. "We will change this world together.". Mr. But more than a year into the war, there are growing differences behind the scenes between Washington and Kyiv on war aims, and potential flashpoints loom on how, and when, the conflict will end. A group of historians, military and intelligence experts, and cultural and political analysts, looked back at how the war has played out thus far and considered where events may be headed during a colloquium Wednesday hosted by the Belfer Centers Intelligence Project and Russia Matters at Harvard Kennedy School. Mr. Putins comment to the press last June that There is nothing to worry us in terms of Swedish and Finnish membership of NATO hardly suggests that the alliances enlargement caused such deep concern for the Kremlin. Here are answers to 10 of your questions: Who knows? Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers his annual state of the nation address in central Moscow on Feb. 21. "In this case, the Siloviki, joined by economic and financial elites, would try to negotiate a deal with Putin to declare a 'victory,' as in 'standing up to the West,' 'not losing,' 'defending Motherland,' etc., but pushing the baton to a designated successor," he said. (Image credit: Damian M. Marhefka). "The world has changed. The U.S. set the conflict in motion by the way it viewed the dissolution of the Soviet Union, formally recognizing some countries, like Russia, as successor states, but not others, like Ukraine, leaving them in a geopolitical gray zone. More turbulence likely ahead after bank collapses. subscribe to Stanford Report. As part of that coverage we asked you: After a year of unpredictability, what do you still want to know? The move comes after Putin ordered troops into two pro-Russian, breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine on Monday. Negotiations began on Monday between UN officials and Russias deputy foreign minister on a possible extension to a deal allowing the safe export of grain from Ukraines Black Sea ports, the Russian diplomatic mission in Geneva said. hide caption. Still, even this outcome where Ukraine remains a sovereign democracy and NATO is faced with an improved security situation could be "fraught with danger," the analysts warned. Unlikely. He would not have a chance to deploy a nuclear weapon, as many fear, for that order will surely be sabotaged on multiple levels," said Mykhnenko. According to him, those efforts could lead to what Ukraine feels would be an end to the war. The international criminal court intends to open two war crimes cases tied to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and will seek arrest warrants for several people, the New York Times reported citing sources unauthorised to speak publicly. This creates what war and peace researchers call a commitment problem. On the other hand, the region has been the site of a bloody eight-year war between the Ukrainian army and Russia-backed separatists (about 14,000 people have been killed in this war). In this hypothetical scenario, Putin would be prevented from toppling Kyiv's government and establishing a puppet regime, while "the determination and skill of the Ukrainian resistance forces a stalemate on the battlefield that favors the defenders," the Atlantic Council's strategists Pavel, Engelke and Cimmino noted. This training has been picking up steam. Still, analysts say Russia is likely to "win" in Ukraine, and have drawn out various scenarios for what comes next. Other top officials told The Economist last month that a Russian offensive could come as soon as January. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. And because war is so costly, it is normally better to accept even part of an envisioned peace agreement than continue to fight. What happened during incident between US drone and Russian jet. John Moore/Getty Images Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a conference as part of a summit called to attempt to find a lasting political solution to the civil war in Syria, at Vahdettin Mansion in Istanbul, Turkey . Putin may be forced out of power should Russia lose the war in Ukraine, former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev told Newsweek. ", "They might think they don't need Putin anymore," he said. Judging by the multi-vector assault on Ukraine one year ago, the Kremlin sought to quickly capture Kyiv and occupy the eastern one-half to two-thirds of Ukraine. When the superforecasters were asked to name the year in which they expected Russia's war against Ukraine to end, the median answer was 2025, with a minimum of 2024 and a maximum of 2037. Ukraine expert Terrell Jermaine Starr recently told me, "every step that Ukrainians took towards Europe came as a direct result of Russian aggression.". But Larry Summers says regulators have significant tools at their disposal, need to be vigilant of specific vulnerabilities. "We need to think in terms of years, not months.". In this scenario, Russia could hope that the. "The situation in Moscow will proceed rapidly, with the siloviki pushing Putin out of power. To date, only one city has definitively fallen to the Russians since the invasion began in the early morning of Feb. 24 Kherson although others like Mariupol, in the south, appear to be perilously close amid food, water and power shortages. A Ukrainian flag adorns an electrical post in Kupiansk, in the Kharkiv region, on Feb. 13, nearly a year after . Ukrainian soldiers clean their weapons as they prepare to head back to war in Irpin on March 5, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine. Second, a moratorium on NATO expansion eastward. First published on Thu 24 Nov 2022 19.28 EST. It was one year ago last week that Russia invaded. However, I think that it would not be surprising if Ukrainians eventually prefer to end the fighting even with an undesirable peace agreement. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba struck a similar note Wednesday, saying Russian troops could attack Ukraine at any time, as had been the case since 2014, but that its forces were not . The Ukrainian flag flutters between buildings destroyed in bombardment in the Ukrainian town of Borodianka. However the war concludes, an independent and sovereign Ukrainian state will remain on the map of Europe, and it will be much larger than the rump state that Moscow apparently intended to leave one year ago. Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko has thanked Britons for the sacrifices they had made in supporting her nation in the ongoing war against Russia, which began when Vladimir Putin . A year ago, most everyone expected Russia to dominate the skies with its much larger and more modern air force. "We want peace around the world," 70-year-old Kyiv resident Nina Albul recently told my colleague Hanna Palamarenko, "but we also want the world to know that it's okay for enslaved people to fight back. The suffering of the Ukrainians appears to have hardened their resolve and willingness to defend their country. Tens of thousands have died, including many civilians. Britain declared that the UKs security hinged on the outcome of the Ukraine war in an update to its foreign policy framework published on Monday. It is not possible to predict which of these dynamics might lead to peace negotiations. Russian officials, on the other hand, have said Ukraine must recognize those regions as Russian territories before peace talks can proceed. Russias Finance Ministry reports annual revenue fell 35 percent in 2022 while spending rose 59 percent. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has long maintained that his country would not accept peace negotiations with Russia until Putin concedes the four territories it illegitimately annexed from Ukraine in September. Without a solid way to enforce the terms of a peace agreement, there is little incentive for either warring party to agree to one. Ukrainian soldiers help an elderly woman to cross a destroyed bridge as she evacuates the city of Irpin, northwest of Kyiv, on March 7, 2022. If Putin attempts to present the conflict, if it hasn't gone his way, as a victory, then any kind of this disappointment or resistance, "will also be very difficult to spread," Bondarev said. So in Ukraine, people mark the fall of the Soviet Union with "Independence Day," while in Russia, it's understood as a reformation of the same state with its roots in the Russian Empire. Beliefs in the costs of war and the costs of peace also matter. Russia is keeping those fighter jets grounded for now and is attacking with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as drones. Sergei Supinksy/AFP via Getty Images Indeed, in this "miracle" scenario, the analysts said that the Kremlin realizes that Russia "will pay an exorbitant price" for its invasion of Ukraine and, facing the prospect of a long and costly slog in Ukraine, coupled with economic collapse and diplomatic isolation, Putin would order a withdrawal of his troops. Dmitry Astakhov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images, Swedish Air Force/TT News Agency/AFP via Getty Images, After a year of war in Ukraine, all signs point to more misery with no end in sight, Want to support the people in Ukraine? Budanov added that he expects Ukraine's military to make a large push against the invading Russians in the spring. As have been calls on Putin to end the war, from Western heads of state to the pope. The only way to keep Russia from fighting or winning this war is to give the Ukrainians military support, she said. As the one-year mark of Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine approaches, Steven Pifer discusses whats next for Ukraine, Russia, and the West and how the conflict may unfold in the months and even years to come. When opposing groups reach an agreement in other types of conflicts such as an agreement to end a labor union strike, for instance there is typically a government in place to help enforce its agreement. "This will happen throughout Ukraine, from Crimea to the Donbas.". This is a grinding trench and artillery war of attrition. Video. In fact, in his speeches about Ukraine, he criticizes the Soviet leadership for creating Ukraine, the Soviet republic that later became an independent country, on a whim. As Russia continues with its push to seize the eastern Donbas region in its entirety, Ukraine is expected to launch a fresh counteroffensive against Russian forces in the coming months. This Swedish Air Force handout image from March 2, 2022, shows Russian fighter jets violating Swedish airspace east of the Swedish Baltic Sea island of Gotland. "Independence Day," marking the dissolution of the Soviet Union, is now referred to as "the restoration of independence." In early February 2022, satellite imagery showed the largest deployment of Russian troops to its border with Belarus since the end of the Cold War. They seem capable of liberating more occupied territory, but driving the Russians completely out of Ukraine will pose a stiff challenge, especially as the Russian army has prepared defensive positions. This will increasingly be the future of air warfare. NATO does not want a full-scale war in Europe, and Russian President Vladimir Putin knows he would lose a conflict with a 30-member military alliance led by the Americans. Ukrainian designer Margarita Chala stands next to shoes in Prague symbolizing war crimes in Ukraine. The material damage to infrastructure, housing, and industry amounts to many hundreds of billions of dollars. "Ukrainians will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. There is no going back we are in an entirely new era," he said. Earlier this month, the G7 imposed a $100 price cap on crude oil, but that's largely symbolic, with the current market hovering around $76. The question then may become: when do the sides reach a state of mutual exhaustion that might open a path for a negotiation? Both armies have suffered staggering losses and neither has anything that looks like a knockout blow in them. Numbers are hard to come by, but Russia had an estimated 1,500 fighter jets before the war began and still has the vast majority of them, probably 1,400 or more. The war will leave Russia diminished in military, economic, and geopolitical terms. Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, told ABC News in an interview shared by the outlet on Wednesday that he expects the "hottest" fighting between Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces to occur in March. The OECD says displaced Ukrainians have generally found work more quickly than other refugees. In February 2023, a senior Ukrainian official said that peace talks are out of the question without Ukraines reclaiming its territory that Russia overtook 2022. Ukrainians who settled in neighboring Poland have learned Polish, which has some similarities to Ukrainian. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have also escalated along the de facto border between the two countries at the isthmus of the Crimean Peninsula, which is to the south and west of the Line of . American foreign policy starting in the 1990s has played a role in Russias misperceptions, Hill argued. The conflict has been a disaster for both countries, especially Russia, he noted. The rest is funding the Ukrainian government (this helps pay the salaries of Ukrainian government workers) and humanitarian aid to help the millions of Ukrainians who have been driven from their homes. Russian forces fired two rockets at a school in Avdiivka, according to the head of the office of the Ukrainian presidency, Andriy Yermak. Experts say the cause of the military conflict can be tied to a complicated history, Russia's tensions with NATO and the ambitions of Vladimir Putin. In this scenario, strategists at the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security program, Barry Pavel, Peter Engelke and Jeffrey Cimmino, noted that Russia's victory in Ukraine would be a "pyrrhic one," that is, a victory not worth winning because so much is lost to achieve it. What the U.S. has done, though, is build a coalition to leverage the global oil market against Russia's energy sector. The Ukrainian flag flutters between buildings destroyed in bombardment in the Ukrainian town of Borodianka. But there are three main issues that could change this dynamic. Britain's Royal Navy said it was escorting a Russian frigate and tanker in waters. More than half has been for military help. One year ago, few analysts in the West, and seemingly none in the Kremlin, would have forecast that the Ukrainian military would largely be holding its own in February 2023. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. Zelenskiy said: Today I conferred the title of Hero of Ukraine upon Oleksandr Matsievskyi, a soldier. Daniel Leal/AFP via Getty Images To receive Stanford news daily, But the Russian goal of "denazification" as a stated offensive goal has not faded into the background. Got a confidential news tip? Moscow claims that Washington is attempting to force Switzerland to drop its arms re-export ban amid the ongoing war . Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. The money Congress has already approved will help cover Ukraine's needs for the next several months. Western officials estimate the Russian military has suffered some 200,000 killed and wounded in action. There are many questions over who could lead a loyalist regime in Ukraine, one that could resemble that of Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko. Now the U.S. and European militaries are training Ukrainian forces in Europe. This includes overwhelming domestic support for joining NATO and the European Union, despite both blocs expressing hesitation to Ukraine's membership for decades preceding the war. March 1, 2022 at 6:00 a.m. EST. Third, resolution of ongoing and . This is not 1945, 1956 or 1968 where Soviet troops/the NKVD [the Soviet law enforcement agency] did bludgeon civilians into submission, but 2022," Ash said in emailed comments on Feb. 25, a day after Russia invaded Ukraine. Putin hasn't pulled back on using "denazification" as his stated goal for the offensive in Ukraine. When President Bill Clinton signed that law in 1996, several countries accused the U.S. of violating their sovereignty, passing their own laws to make the U.S. regulation effectively unenforceable. He's not a superhero. Russian President Vladimir Putin may be forced out of power should Russia be defeated in his war against Ukraine, Newsweek has been told. Rapid escalation of Ukraine crisis fuels fear of confrontation between Russia and the West. By Christina Pazzanese Harvard Staff Writer. Ask any U.S. military member who's worked with the Ukrainians and they'll tell you the Ukrainians are extremely tech-savvy and extremely fast learners. Without a way to enforce an agreement, how can one side trust the other side to live up to the commitments it made to stop fighting? almost half end in some type of agreement, Kay Nietfeld/picture alliance via Getty Images, killed at least 40,000 Ukrainian civilians, resolve and willingness to defend their country, Putins popularity appears to have remained high, Centre of Excellence Chief Operating Officer, Quantum Biotechnology (QUBIC), Director, Monash University Museum of Art (MUMA), Research Fellow in Multiscale Mathematical Modelling of Cell Biology, Executive Dean, Faculty of Business, Government and Law University of Canberra. 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